The European market is set to lead the global adoption of natural refrigerants across various HVAC&R segments, including light commercial refrigeration and residential air-conditioning and heat pumps, according to analysis from Danish manufacturer Danfoss.
By 2032, CO2 (R744), ammonia (R717) or hydrocarbons are projected to be dominant refrigerants in residential, commercial and industrial stationary refrigeration applications across the EU. A similar trend is expected in European air-conditioning and heat pump applications, with the exception of rooftop variable refrigerant flow (VRF) systems with scroll compressors and reversible commercial air-conditioning systems with screw or centrifugal compressors, where natural refrigerants will see limited to regular use.
The use of natural refrigerants in North America, China and the rest of the world will increase over the coming years, but generally at a slower pace than in Europe, noted Danfoss.
These trends are detailed in Danfoss’s “Refrigerant options now and in the future” white paper.
“We expect [natural refrigerants] to become the preferred choice whenever possible, though safety will still be a limiting factor for some applications,” it said.
The report also examines the regulatory forces shaping the global transition, from international agreements such as the Montreal Protocol and regional measures including the EU F-gas Regulation, to national policy like China’s HCFC Phase-out Management Plan (HPMP) and sub-national regulation like in California.
“We expect [natural refrigerants] to become the preferred choice whenever possible, though safety will still be a limiting factor for some applications.”
Danfoss
Ammonia: R717 is already the main refrigerant for commercial and industrial refrigeration and heat pump applications with capacities of 1–10MW (284–2,843TR), globally.
- This trend will continue over the coming years. However, by 2032 ammonia-CO2 cascade systems are projected to dominate the industrial refrigeration sector.
- There is and will continue to be limited use of ammonia in reversible commercial air-conditioning systems with screw or centrifugal compressors and capacities of 0.4–5MW (114–1,422TR), globally.
CO2: R744 will see increasing use in large 1–10MW refrigeration and heat pump applications globally, led by the EU. By 2032, the refrigerant will be used regularly in these sectors worldwide.
- Danfoss has identified CO2 as the only natural refrigerant-based option for rooftop VFR systems with scroll compressors, seeing limited use in Europe from 2028.
- CO2 is already classified as a main refrigerant in centralized racks for the food retail sector in Europe and North America. This trend will continue over the coming years and is projected to be the dominant option globally by 2032.
- CO2 will see increasing use in light commercial refrigeration applications with capacities of 0.15–5kW (0.04–1.4TR), globally, with regular use expected by 2032.
By 2032, Danfoss has projected CO2 to be a main refrigerant for condensing units in North America and Europe, with slower uptake elsewhere. The manufacturer currently categorizes CO2 condensing units as “limited use” or “not applicable,” despite the technology being widely available and used in many markets including Europe and Japan.
Hydrocarbons: Globally, hydrocarbons like propane (R290) and isobutane (R600a) are already the dominant refrigerant used in residential refrigeration equipment.
- In Europe, hydrocarbons are also the main refrigerant used in light-commercial refrigeration applications. This trend will gradually spread, and by 2032 hydrocarbons will dominate globally in this sector.
- By 2028 and 2032, respectively, hydrocarbons will be used regularly in condensing units in Europe and North America.
- Hydrocarbons will see increasing use globally in residential air-conditioning and heating applications with capacities of 1–10kW (0.3–2.8TR). They are projected to become the main refrigerant in Europe by 2032, with limited adoption in North America and regular use in China and the rest of the world.
Europe will notably lead the adoption of hydrocarbons across all other stationary HVAC markets analyzed by Danfoss, with the exception of rooftop VRF systems with scroll compressors, for which the manufacturer has said hydrocarbons are not applicable.
By 2032, hydrocarbons will see regular or dominant use in Europe’s commercial and industrial air-conditioning and heat pump applications, covering capacity ranges of 30–400kW (8.5–114TR) to 1–10MW. The majority of other regions will only see limited use of hydrocarbons in these sectors over the coming years.
