Based on new EU certificates, Heat Pumps Watch (HPW), an independent non-profit European data and analysis organization, has reported a definitive shift in refrigerants for residential heat pumps, with propane (R290) capturing a 38% share in 2024.
By comparison R290 accounted for only 3% in 2021, while R32 held 79% and R410A 11%. In 2017, R410A dominated with 86%, while R32 and R290 each accounted for 3%.
“Market data shows how quickly the industry is moving,” said Marek Miara, Founder and Executive Director of HPW. “An evaluation of 2,443 heat pump models from the European certification register paints a clear picture of the refrigerant transition.”
“Market data shows how quickly the industry is moving.”
Marek Miara, Founder and Executive Director of HPW
An additional sign: “The maximum flow temperatures of certified models have risen from an average of 57 to 62°C [135 to 144°F] since 2017,” Miara said, adding that the higher temperature reflects the increased use of propane.
- Propane achieves an average maximum outlet flow temperature of 70°C (158°F), while R32 and R404A typically reach 60°C (140°F).
- Propane delivers comparable or slightly better efficiency than synthetic refrigerants, according to Miara. However, R290’s higher temperature output makes heat pumps a suitable solution for older buildings.
The drivers: Both the EU F-gas Regulation and the potential restrictions on HFO refrigerants, which decompose in the atmosphere into TFA (trifluoroacetic acid), an ultrashort‑chain PFAS (per‑ and polyfluoroalkyl substance), are shifting the market towards R290 solutions, according to Miara.
- Starting January 1, 2027, the EU F-gas Regulation will limit the GWP of refrigerants to 150 in new heat pumps with a heating capacity of up to 12kW (3.4TR), effectively banning most HFCs while allowing most HFOs.
- However, most HFOs could be banned under future regulations. The European Chemicals Agency (ECHA) is inviting EU stakeholders to comment by May 25 to guide the final opinion of the Committee for Socio-Economic Analysis (SEAC) on PFAS restrictions, which includes fluorinated refrigerant gases.
Maturing market: While manufacturers in Asian countries continue to transition product lines to natural refrigerants, European producers are largely already there, according to Miara.
- Copeland and Daikin plan to expand their existing joint venture in 2026 to introduce R290 inverter swing rotary compressors to the European residential heat pump market.
- In August 2025 Ait-group launched two residential R290 heat pumps with a refrigerant charge of 150g, allowing for safe operation in indoor residential applications without the need for a separate ventilation system.
- “Due to the complex safety components, propane systems currently cost 10‒15% more than equivalent synthetic devices,” Miara said. “However, these systems are rapidly becoming standard, and the price differences will no longer be significant in the coming years.”
Sweet deals: Various government and private sector programs seek to support the uptake of R290 heat pumps in residential applications.
- Under a £1.6 billion ($2.15 billion/€1.85 billion) U.K. public sector procurement framework run by Procure Plus, social housing landlords and other public sector bodies can implement decarbonization measures, with Viessmann R290 heat pumps selected for the program.
- Working with Sweden-based solar energy company Svea Solar, IKEA offers residential R290 air-to-water heat pumps to customers in Germany, with units sourced from Swedish manufacturer Aira. The purchase price includes the heat pump and installation costs. Svea Solar will install the systems and apply for government subsidies on behalf of homeowners.
